Thursday, September 25, 2008

FMDs

Oops! Colorado McCain camp sends internal e-mail to reporters


So much for "NOT Politicizing" the bailout....

Oops! Colorado McCain camp sends internal e-mail to reporters
By Ernest Luning 9/24/08
Colorado Independent


The regional spokesman for John McCain in Colorado accidentally sent the campaign’s internal talking points on the candidate’s plans to suspend his campaign to its entire Colorado media list, instead of a list of key volunteers, Wednesday afternoon, PolitickerCO’s Jeremy Pelzer reports.

The memo, titled “TALKING POINTS: SUSPENDING THE CAMPAIGN,” includes a list of points the campaign wants emphasized, and includes this warning from McCain staffer Tom Kise: “Please do not proactively reach out to the media on this.”

McCain’s plans to stop campaigning — and a proposal to cancel Friday’s debate with Obama — had already been widely reported Wednesday afternoon.

Still, Kise was surprised at his e-mail snafu, as Pelzer reports:

Told by a reporter that the e-mail had been sent to him and others in the media, Kise said, “F*ck, tell me I didn’t send it to the wrong list.”

Kise said the talking points were meant for McCain volunteers.

Among the document’s “Topline Messaging”:

• To address our nation’s financial crisis, John McCain will suspend his campaign and return to Washington. He has spoken to Senator Obama and informed him of his decision and asked Senator Obama to join him. The campaign is suspending its advertising and fundraising.


Obama spokesperson Bill Burton, clearly, didn’t get Kise’s memo. As TPM reports, Burton challenged the McCain campaign’s assertion that McCain “asked Senator Obama to join him,” saying it was the Obama campaign that first broached the possibility of joint action on the financial crisis:

“At 8:30 this morning, Senator Obama called Senator McCain to ask him if he would join in issuing a joint statement outlining their shared principles and conditions for the Treasury proposal and urging Congress and the White House to act in a bipartisan manner to pass such a proposal. At 2:30 this afternoon, Senator McCain returned Senator Obama’s call and agreed to join him in issuing such a statement. The two campaigns are currently working together on the details.”

Wednesday afternoon, Obama told a press conference he rejected McCain’s unilateral decision to cancel Friday’s debate:

“I believe we should continue to have the debate,” he just said. “I believe it makes sense for us to present ourselves to the American people.”

“Obviously if it turns out that we need to be in Washington, we’ve both got big planes, we’ve painted our slogan on the side of them,” Obama also said. “They can get us from Washington to Mississippi pretty quickly.” The debate is set to take place in Mississippi.

---------

Note: McCain also called for suspension of ads during this time period. As of Wednesday night, in Pennsylvania, Mccain attack ads - specifically aimed at Obama and the bailout were still running.

Reagan Revised

the Adventures of Digger the Mole

Friday, September 19, 2008

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Play the McCain Lobbyist Game at MCCAIN'S LOBBYISTS.COM


Play the McCain Lobbyist Game at MCCAIN'S LOBBYISTS.COM

McCain Campaign rebuffs Community Organizers:

On September 9th, 2007 in Lancaster, PA., Keystone Progress attempted to deliver a petition to John McCain and Sarah Palin. The petition asks the McCain campaign to apologize for the disparaging remarks regarding community organizers.

With some persistence, Keystone Progress were able to hand the petition to a "friend" of the McCain-Palin Campaign. When asked if McCain-Palin would apologize, Keystone Progress were told "I don't think that will happen".

READ MY LIPSTICK - McCain-Palin in the White House??? NO WAY!! NO HOW!!

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

McCain-Palin: Maverick? Reformers? NOT

The following list took me about 20 minutes of searching "the google" on the tubes of the internets. So easy, even a Fox Journalist could do it.

McCain leads in: Bundlers: 850
Mega-Donors: 1025
Lobbyist Bundlers: 76
http://www.whitehouseforsale.org/candidate.cfm?CandidateID=C0005


McCain's Staff:

Campaign manager Rick Davis is a major telecommunications lobbyist.

Senior foreign policy adviser Randy Scheunemann recently faced scrutiny over his foreign lobbying on behalf of the Republic of Georgia, which has been embroiled in a military conflict with Russia.

Senior adviser Charlie Black was a foreign lobbyist for dictators in Zaire and Angola in the 1980s, fodder for the liberal group MoveOn.org.

Frank Donatelli, the Republican National Committee's liaison to the McCain campaign, has had clients including Exxon Mobil.

Economic adviser Nancy Pfotenhauer has lobbied for corporate giants like Koch Industries.

John Green lobbied for Fannie Mae, the troubled mortgage giant.

National finance Co-chairman Wayne Berman - lobbied for Fannie Mae, the troubled mortgage giant.

Bush Counselor Ed Gillespie Had Lucrative Lobbying Practice Prior To White House Work. Ed Gillespie, one of President Bush's top advisors, founded the lobbying firm Quinn Gillespie & Associates (QGA), a lobbying firm that still bears his name and indirectly uses his influence to win favor with Bush Administration officials

Phil Graham, Economic Adivsor - UBS Lobbyist * officially not part of McCain campaign anymore, unofficially????

Bushies on Board:

Steve Schmidt, Bush’s attack dog in the 2004 election

Mark McKinnon,Bush media strategist

Karl Rove, the president’s top political hand since his Texas days

Dan Bartlett, formerly a top aide in the Bush White House

Ken Mehlman, who ran Bush’s 2004 campaign

Sara Taylor, Bush political adviser

Tucker Eskew - key members of then-Gov. George W. Bush's South Carolina team during the 2000 primaries. Ran the smear campaign against McCain during that primary race. Senior Bush White House communications aide, is serving as senior counselor to Palin’s operation.

Mark Wallace, a former lawyer for the Bush 2000 campaign who served in a variety of administration jobs including chief counsel at the Federal Emergency Management Agency and deputy ambassador to the United Nations, has been put in charge of “prep” for the debate against Biden.

Wallace’s wife, Nicolle Wallace, the former White House communications director, has taken over the same job for Palin.

Douglas Holtz-Eakin, the former chief economist at the Council of Economic Advisers who has been serving as top economics guru for the McCain campaign, has moved over to serve as Palin’s chief domestic-policy adviser.

Matt Scully, a former Bush White House speechwriter who helped draft some of the major foreign-policy addresses during the president’s first term, is working on Palin’s acceptance speech to the convention Wednesday night.

Steve Biegun, who once served as the No. 3 National Security Council official under Condoleezza Rice at the White House,

Matt Scully, a former Bush White House speechwriter who helped draft some of the major foreign-policy addresses during the president’s first term, is working on Palin’s acceptance speech to the convention Wednesday night.

Mark Wallace, a former lawyer for the Bush 2000 campaign who served in a variety of administration jobs including chief counsel at the Federal Emergency Management Agency and deputy ambassador to the United Nations, has been put in charge of “prep” for the debate against Biden.

Wallace’s wife, Nicolle Wallace, the former White House communications director, has taken over the same job for Palin.

Douglas Holtz-Eakin, the former chief economist at the Council of Economic Advisers who has been serving as top economics guru for the McCain campaign, has moved over to serve as Palin’s chief domestic-policy adviser.

other: The Republican nominee drew [b]more donations from executives at oil and gas, real-estate, securities and investment and insurance companies,[/b] the data showed. He raised $22.3 million from the top 25 industries in the two-month period, compared with Sen. Obama's $19.9 million. http://online.wsj.com/article_print/SB122083596543108777.html

Senator McCain has recruited at least 127 federal lobbyists to run his presidential campaign and as top campaign fundraisers.

Even After Lobbyists Caused Problems For McCain, He Reached Out To "K" Street. On May 30, 2008, Politico reported, "John McCain's campaign manager and other senior officials met with about 70 top Republican lobbyists yesterday, making the case" for McCain's presidency. The aides dispatched to "K" Street included three lobbyists - Campaign Manager Rick Davis, Deputy Campaign Manager Christian Ferry, and Deputy RNC Chairman Frank Donatelli.

Seven Top McCain Aides And Fundraisers Helped Air Bus Secure Multi-Billion Air Force Contract Over Boeing. At least seven top McCain advisers and fundraisers - Thomas Loeffler, Susan Nelson, John Green, Kirsten Chadwick, Kirk Blalock, Aleix Jarvis and William Ball III - have all lobbied for EADS, the parent company of European airplane manufacturer Air Bus.

At Least 22 Of McCain's Top Aides And Fundraisers Have Lobbied For 8 Of The Top 10 Defense Contractors. At least 22 of McCain's top aides and fundraisers have lobbied for the top ten Defense contractors, including 8 lobbyists for Lockheed Martin, 3 lobbyists for Boeing, 1 lobbyist for Northrop Grumman, 3 lobbyists for Raytheon, 2 lobbyists for General Dynamics, 7 lobbyists for EADS, 1 lobbyist for L-3 Communications, and 5 lobbyists for United Technologies. In total, the top 10 defense contractors have also given at least $216,259 in campaign contributions to McCain. [Senate Lobbying Disclosure Records, accessed 5/22/08; CQ Moneyline, accessed 5/22/08; DefenseNews, accessed 5/22/08]

McCain Has At Least 13 Big Oil Lobbyists Advising Him Or Raising Money For His Campaign. At least 13 of the lobbyists advising McCain or raising money for his campaign have lobbied for big oil. His lobbyists have lobbied for Exxon Mobil, Shell, Sunoco, Amerada Hess, Chevron Texaco, the American Petroleum Institute, Occidental Petroleum, Yukos Oil, the Chinese National Off-Shore Oil Corporation, BP, Chevron, and BP Amoco. [Senate Lobbying Disclosure Records, accessed 5/30/08]

McCain Has At Least 37 Big Pharma Lobbyists Advising Him Or Raising Money For His Campaign. At least 37 of the lobbyists advising McCain or raising money for his campaign have lobbied for big pharma. His lobbyists' clients have included PhRMA, Pfizer, Novartis, Astrazeneca, Wyeth, Amgen, Johnson & Johnson, Sanofi Pasteur, Eli Lilly, Hoffman La-Roche, and Bristol-Myers Squibb. [Senate Lobbying Disclosure Records, accessed 5/30/08]

While Mayor of Wasilla, Palin oversaw the hiring of a lobbyist, Steven Silver -- a former chief of staff to now-indicted GOP senator Ted Stevens -- to help win federal earmarks for the city. Steven Silver also worked for Jack Abramoff.


*sources:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/09/mccain.lobbying/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phil_Gramm
http://www.blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/09/02/bushies-come-to-palin-s-rescue.aspx
http://mccainsource.com/corruption?id=0009
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/02/palin-lobbyist-worked-for_n_123255.html

Monday, September 8, 2008

Saturday, September 6, 2008

Make them apologize

We were appalled last night as we listened to speaker after speaker at the Republican Convention demean the fine work of community organizers.

It was insulting to the people, young and old, who work to better our nation, starting in their own backyard. We are proud to be community organizers and we are proud that a community organizer might be our next president. We honor the work of community organizers, and we urge you to join us in honoring them.

If you appreciate the tireless and sometimes thankless work of these agents of democracy, please do two things:1) Go to: http://www.iamacommunityorganizer.org / and demand that McCain and Palin apologize to the dedicated present and former community organizers around the nation;

2) Send this to everyone you know and ask them to sign on.Thank you in advance for your support. The Keystone Progress Teamhttp://www.keystoneprogress.org /

Friday, September 5, 2008

Archives of Alaska Papers Reveal Disturbing -- And Goofy -- Details from Palin's Past

Archives of Alaska Papers Reveal Disturbing -- And Goofy -- Details from Palin's Past

By Greg Mitchell
editorandpublisher.com
Published: September 03, 2008 2:10 PM ET

NEW YORK: The McCain team may not have vetted Sarah Palin with boots on the ground in Alaska, but the Democrats sure did -- two years ago when she ran for governor. The oppo-research, compiled in a 62-page document with countless summaries or direct quotes, largely from local newspapers, covers all of the important issues you would expect to see, from her views on abortion and abstinence to tangled oil pipeline questions.

But it also gets into some quirky, if revealing, areas as well, such as Palin founding a company called "Rouge Cru" -- what she called a "classy" way to say redneck -- in case her political career didn't work out a few years ago.

Politico.com obtained a copy and printed merely a handful of the hundreds of findings on Tuesday. These included serious matters such as her use of the mayor's office in political campaigns. But it also posted a PDF of the entire document which few have probably examined. Here some of the more outrageous, or surprising, revelations -- strictly from newspaper clips. They are posted here under their heading in the document. Note: The Frontiersman is the local paper in Wasilla.

DEATH PENALTY

Palin Said "Hang 'Em Up" When Asked About the Death Penalty. Asked about the death penalty, in extreme cases such as the murder of a child, Palin said, "My goodness, hang 'em up, yeah." [Anchorage Daily News , 8/18/06]

RELIGION

Palin wrote a Letter to the Editor saying only, "San Francisco judges forbidding our Pledge of Allegiance? They will take the phrase 'under God' away from me when my cold, dead lips can no longer utter those words. God bless America." [Juneau Empire, 6/30/02]

WALMART

Palin Presided Over a Wedding at a Walmart. He worked in the pets department. She was a cashier. A romance blossomed. And when it came time to say ''I do,'' they chose -- where else? -- an aisle next to menswear. Sandwiched between racks of cotton pants and surrounded by ''Back-to-School Specials'' signs, Jake McCowan and Rosalyn Ryan exchanged vows last week at the place where they met, work and fell in love: the Wasilla Wal-Mart. A crowd of 200, including passengers from a tour bus and several dozen curious shoppers, watched the two employees tie the knot in an afternoon ceremony officiated by Wasilla Mayor Sarah Palin. ''It was so sweet,'' said Palin, who fought back tears during the nuptials. "It was so Wasilla." [Anchorage Daily News (Alaska), 8/28/99]

Palin Delivered "Non-Answers" On Expanding Health Care Coverage and Walmart. "Asked about expanding health care coverage and about Wal-Mart's corporate conduct, she delivered non-answers with a disarming smile." [Anchorage Daily News (Alaska), 1/30/06]

USED PUBLIC FUNDS FOR POLITICAL GAIN

In her 2002 Lt. Governor bid, Mayor Palin used city employees, telephones, computers, fax machines for campaign fundraising and literature. On her candidate registration form, she used her City Hall fax number, and her mayoral e-mail address. Records show that Wasilla city property was used to contact supporters, donors, media contacts, and media purchasing. [Anchorage Daily News, 7/21/06]


GENDER CARD

Stambaugh Sued for Gender Discrimination After Palin Said She Was Intimidated by His Size. After Palin fired Irl Stambaugh, the police chief, he sued the city in part based on gender discrimination. The [Wasilla] Frontiersman wrote, "The gender discrimination issues stem from statements Palin allegedly made to others that she was intimidated by Stambaugh's size. He stands over 6-feet tall and weighs more than 200 pounds, which, the lawsuit said, is attributed to his gender." [Frontiersman, 2/26/97]

Palin Went to See Ivana Trump at Costco, Saying Alaska was So Desperate for "Any Semblance of Glamour and Culture". "Sarah Palin, a commercial fisherman from Wasilla, told her husband on Tuesday she was driving to Anchorage to shop at Costco. Instead, she headed straight for Ivana. And there, at J.C. Penney's cosmetic department, was Ivana, the former Mrs. Donald Trump, sitting at a table next to a photograph of herself. She wore a light-colored pantsuit and pink fingernail polish. Her blonde hair was coiffed in a bouffant French twist. 'We want to see Ivana,' said Palin, who admittedly smells like salmon for a large part of the summer, 'because we are so desperate in Alaska for any semblance of glamour and culture.'" [Anchorage Daily News (Alaska), 4/3/96]

Palin Explained that She Couldn't Run for Senate Because Then She Couldn't Be the "Team Mom." "A hockey mom and a former standout athlete herself, Palin said she understood her son's concerns. 'How could I be the team mom if I was a U.S. senator?' she said." [Anchorage Daily News (Alaska), 4/24/04]

more.........

Daily Show: Gender Card

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Ban ALL Community Organizers!

On Wednesday night at the Republican Convention, Gov. Mitt Romney, Mayor Rudy Guilliani and Gov. Sarah Palin all disparaged community organizations. After listening to them I'm convinced community organizers are bad and should be banned.

When a local church group knocks on my door and asks for donations - I will slam it in their face. When the Salvation Army rings their bell at the corner, I'll kick over their kettle. If the Elks, the Moose, the Rotary Club asks for help with a community project, I will spit in their faces.

If there are donation cans at the cashier counter in my local store which ask for help for someone in need of an operation, I'll pass it by. If my neighbor has a house fire, I'll tell them tough luck - you are on your own. When a hurricane hits, I won't send money. If there's another 9-11 - too bad, you are on your own. When the Red Cross has a blood drive - Sorry - the Red Cross is a COMMUNITY ORGANIZATION!!!

When the local Veterans Organization asks for items to be sent to our troops in Iraq and Afghanistan - they will get nothing from me. Schools - don't call on me to help with a bake sale or a car wash. Hey Girl Scouts - don't bother trying to sell me cookies. Boy Scouts - forget the aluminum can drives. Those cans are mine and you can't have them.

By disparaging Barak Obama's years as a community organizer, the republicans have disparaged all community organizers, all community organizations and all those who volunteer their time and abilities to that community.

"I have spoken of a thousand points of light, of all the community organizations that are spread like stars throughout the Nation, doing good. We will work hand in hand, encouraging, sometimes leading, sometimes being led, rewarding. We will work on this in the White House, in the Cabinet agencies. I will go to the people and the programs that are the brighter points of light, and I will ask every member of my government to become involved. The old ideas are new again because they are not old, they are timeless: duty, sacrifice, commitment, and a patriotism that finds its expression in taking part and pitching in. " ---President George HW Bush - January 20, 1989

Last night, the republicans spat on thousands of points of light.

Gov. Sarah Palin

Gov. Sarah Palin:

part one:


part two:

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

AMERICA VALUES FAMILIES

With Palin on the ticket - the McCain campaign will fall back to more of the same blather about family values. In the past, the family values blather is something the dems have failed to effectively counteract

The Republicans have wrapped it up in a warm fuzzy blanket, it sounds good, looks good - but beyond that their actions speak differently.

Kerry mentioned it once or twice back in 2004 that I know of and Clinton touched on it briefly in one speech I saw on C-Span, Obama seems to be in the process of crafting a "values" message - but it's not there yet.

IT'S NOT FAMILY VALUES - IT'S VALUING FAMILIES


- the way to value families is to have a healthCARE system that puts people before profits. A healthCARE system which ensures the medications needed are available, affordable and safe

- the way to value families is to enact legislation that protects families from predatory lending practices and other financial schemes which puts their jobs and welfare at risk

- the way to value families is to have an education system which educates

- the way to value families is to have an emergency management system that is able to respond quickly and effectively. to help families in the most dire time of need (think katrina and the recent tornado outbreak)

- the way to value families is to have a veterans system which helps the the troops returning from war.

- the way to value families is to have a social security system the helps families with with their senior members

- the way to value families is to have a forward looking environmental policy to provide clean air, clean water, safe food for the current and future generation

- the way to value families is to encourage job creation here at home and not reward companies who ship jobs overseas.

- the way to value families is to have a foreign policy which focuses on peace and prosperity, not on war and destruction.

- the way to value families is to have a domestic policy that embraces all families.

- the way to value families is to have a policy that is open to science and research, not one that discourages or rewrites findings.

- the way to value families is to have a justice system based on justice not partisan politics.

- the way to value families is to respect and follow the Constitution of the United States - not by looking for loopholes or weasling around it through the use of executive priviledge or signing statements.

AMERICA VALUES FAMILIES

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Political Scientists Predict Victory

Political Scientists Predict Victory for Obama, or a Tight Race
By David Glenn, Chronicle of Higher Education, September 2, 2008


Will Barack Obama cruise to victory in November -- or will the contest be Bush-Gore tight? Both scenarios were sketched here on Friday during the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association when eight scholars offered stylized forecasting models for this fall's election.

Seven of the scholars predicted popular-vote victories for Mr. Obama, but two of them forecast margins so thin that they said he might easily lose the Electoral College. The eighth panelist was not ready to make an official call because his model is based partly on Labor Day opinion polls. But he said it was very possible that his model would predict a victory for John McCain.

The panel featured its share of partisan banter and baseball analogies -- but the scholars said their forecasting models were not just amusements. As they are refined over time, they said, the models should help shed light on how democracies operate. (The object here, by the way, is to correctly predict each candidate's share of the votes cast for the two major parties. Minor-party votes are excluded from the
analyses, so the predicted shares for Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama always add up to 100 percent.)

Without further ado, in descending order of good news for Mr. Obama's camp, here are the results the analyses project:

• Brad Lockerbie, a professor of political science at East Carolina University, said his model predicted an easy victory for Mr. Obama, who would take 58 percent of the vote. Mr. Lockerbie's model is based partly on the University of Michigan's survey of consumer expectations, an index that recently registered its lowest level since 1980. "I'm less than happy with this forecast," Mr. Lockerbie said, explaining that the 58-percent figure seemed to him intuitively too high.

• Thomas M. Holbrook, a professor of government at the University of Wisconsin at Milwaukee, predicted that Mr. Obama would win 55.5 percent of the vote. Mr. Holbrook's model is based on approval ratings for the incumbent president, economic growth during the second quarter of the year, and survey data about personal finances, among other factors.

• Alan I. Abramowitz, a professor of political science at Emory University, predicted that Mr. Obama would win 54.3 percent of the vote. His model is based on economic growth during the second quarter, the incumbent president's approval rating, and the number of terms the incumbent party has held the White House.

• Christopher Wlezien, a professor of political science at Temple University, predicted that Mr. Obama would win 52.2 percent of the vote. His model is based on the leading economic indicators during the second quarter of the year, personal-income growth, approval ratings for the incumbent, and current opinion polling in the McCain-Obama race. (Mr. Wlezien will continue to update his forecast as
the McCain-Obama polls change.)

• Alfred G. Cuzán, a professor of government at the University of West Florida, and Charles M. Bundrick, a professor emeritus of statistics there, predicted that Mr. Obama would win 51.9 percent of the vote. (Their forecast was presented in absentia because they stayed home to help their campus prepare for a possible hurricane strike.) Their model is based on economic growth, the length of time the incumbent party has held the White House, and whether the incumbent party has pursued an
expansionary fiscal policy.

• Helmut Norpoth, a professor of political science at the State University of New York at Stony Brook, forecast that Mr. Obama would win 50.1 percent of the vote. Mr. Norpoth's model is based partly on how much resistance each nominee faced during the primary season. He pointed out that elections like this one, with no incumbent on the ballot, are historically much closer, on average, than elections with an incumbent. (Think of 1960, 1968, and 2000.)

• Michael S. Lewis-Beck, a professor of political science at the University of Iowa, offered a mixed message. The model he typically uses -- which is based partly on economic growth and approval ratings for the incumbent -- gives Mr. Obama a clear victory, with 56.6 percent of the vote. But he said that racial prejudice was likely to undercut that margin. Working with Charles Tien, an associate professor of political science at the City University of New York's Hunter College, Mr. Lewis-Beck used four different methods to estimate the number of voters who would be unwilling to vote for any black candidate. After completing those analyses, Mr. Lewis-Beck and Mr. Tien were left with a tiny margin of victory for Mr. Obama, with 50.07 percent of the vote. (Other scholars on the panel agreed that race was an unknown and probably volatile factor this year. But Mr. Abramowitz scorned
Mr. Lewis-Beck's procedures: "I don't make ad hoc adjustments to my model," he said.)

• James E. Campbell, a professor of political science at the State University of New York at Buffalo, uses a simple model based on Labor Day horse-race polls and economic growth during the second quarter of the year. If no incumbent is running, as is the case this year, Mr. Campbell reduces the weight of the economic variable by half. His assumption is that voters will credit or blame John McCain for economic conditions, but only half as strongly as they would credit or blame the incumbent, George W. Bush, if he were running himself. (Some of the other forecasters' models also make adjustments for non–incumbent election years.)

Mr. Campbell said he was not ready to make a prediction before Labor Day. But he said that second-quarter growth was so strong that his model would predict a victory for John McCain unless he polled less than 47 percent on Labor Day.*

An audience member said he was skeptical of the U.S. Commerce Department's new official estimate of second-quarter economic growth, which was revised sharply upward last week, to 3.3 percent from 1.9 percent. That figure seems out of sync with dire recent reports about personal income and housing foreclosures, he said. If the economic-growth figure is indeed wrong, that would cause problems for at least three of the models presented on Friday.

The forecasts will be published in the October issue of PS: Political Science & Politics. For those keeping score at home: In 2004, seven scholars -- essentially the same cast of characters -- offered forecasts at the political-science meeting. Six of the seven correctly predicted that Mr. Bush would win, and four of their models were within 2.5 percentage points of Mr. Bush's actual vote share. But in 2000 they whiffed, predicting that Al Gore would win between 52.8 percent and 60.3 percent of the two-party vote. His actual share was 50.2 percent.

*Note: In past elections, Campbell has used Labor Day polls. Historically, both parties’ conventions are held before Labor Day. This year, the Republican convention is scheduled to conclude several days after Labor Day. The average of five national polls August 29 - Sept. 1 show Obama leading 49.0% to 43.0%. That is, just before Labor Day, McCain claims 46.7% of the decided two-party vote. These polls,
however, were done after the Democratic convention and before the Republican convention. Very likely, polls conducted after the Republican convention will show McCain polling higher than 47%.

Palin pick - POOR LEadership - POOR Judgement - POOR Decision

McCain was the presumptive nominee at least since March, giving him 5 months to vet, consider and decide on a VP. Choosing a VP is perhaps the most important decision a presidential candidate must make during a campaign.

Usually presidential candidates chose a vice-presidential running mate because a) the person is clearly qualified to be president, b) they work well together, and c) he/she can help win the
election.

With the announcement of Palin this past Friday it was pretty obvious that politics was the only consideration. Palin would help lure in the evangelicals and perhaps bring in a few clinton supporters. The timing of the Palin decision also knocked Obama's formal nomination off the front page and most likely cut into his post-convention bounce. This in itself says it was POLITICS FIRST, not Country First and raises the red flag that McCain will do anything to win. That he put politics first also indicates he is following in bush-cheney footsteps. Do we really want another 4 years of someone directing policy solely based on political considerations?

If in 3 short days, ordinary people, armed only with google as a tool can dig up this much dirt - what does it say about mccain's leadership, judgement and decision making skills?

How a person leads a campaign is indicative on how they will run their office if elected. As previously mentioned - McCain had at least 5 months to search and vet a running mate. What was he doing during this time? We learned yesterday that his "vetting" crew didn't show up in Alaska until the day before the announcement. Talk about last minute scrambling.

We have many serious problems here at home and abroad. Would McCain wait until the last minute to decide on a direction and then base the decision on what would be politcally expedient at that moment? Where's the foresight? The ability to see beyond a photo op?

Whether it's vetting a VP or anyone else to be appointed to office - this involves not only finding out if the person is qualified, but also finding out what may be hiding in their closets. With chosing Palin, it's pitifully obvious McCain did neither.

What is also obvious is there was no planning on how to handle the skeletons emerging from her closet. They are making it up as they go along, much in the same manner as the bush-cheney administration does when they are caught in a corner.

The larger issue is now one of Leadership, Judgement and Decision Making.

McCain is well on his way to being the Worst Presidential Candidate Ever.